You can check out, but you can never leave……. Well, I guess you can, but how are you supposed to make any money? This week will mark the one month point of this anticipated fourth wave. This week will likely be more of the same with choppy sideways price action in the range that we’ve maintained up to this point.
The MMTW dropped to sub 30 on Thursday initiating a pending buy trigger and the buy trigger was tripped Friday with a close at 33.25. From the looks of the open, this thing wasn’t kidding. Even with a solid count I respect this thing when it enters the -30 and +70 zones. The past years 80% track record is not to be traded against.
Since I’ve been looking for a large flat in most of the indices, there is one minor issues that the bears need to wrap up before a substantial decline can take place I believe. The NYA has not satisfied a 90 percent retrace to qualify it for a flat, couple that with the MMTW buy trigger and I think we are going to see some near term upside in the larger correction.
Ultimately I think there will be some more downside coming down the pike, but not just yet. So as a recap, we’ve got another five weeks or so of correcting to do for this presumed fourth wave to meet the duration expectations of the same degree second wave. MMTW just flashed a buy trigger so don’t go getting all bearish immediately. NYA has yet to satisfy the 90 percent retrace of A requirement to qualify it for a flat so that keeps the door open to more near term upside potential as well.